Is the war against Iran an economic issue?
By Curt Bergsten, 22-03-2026
Approximately 21 million barrels per day (mb/d) of oil and its derivatives pass through the Strait of Hormuz. This figure represents about 25% of global maritime oil trade and 20% of global consumption. Due to a military conflict that began in late February 2026, commercial traffic through the strait has been drastically reduced.
Reports indicate that tanker transits have fallen to near zero due to direct attacks and the lack of insurance coverage for ships in the area. Asia is the largest recipient, absorbing almost 90% of the crude oil that passes through the strait. The main buyers are China, India, Japan, and South Korea.
It´s only approximately 600,000 barrels per day (kb/d) of crude oil destined for Europe transited through the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, Why are energy prices in the EU affected so drastically, when the volume from the war-torn area is relatively small?
In March 2026, Europe’s oil reserves were facing an unprecedented emergency release due to conflicts in the Middle East. According to the IEA’s latest Oil Market Report of March 2026, member countries of the International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed on March 11 to release 400 million barrels from their strategic reserves to stabilize the market following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
This quantity (400 M barrels) has been purchased at a much lower price than the current market price. Someone is making big profits from these actions, which we will probably never know!?
The reason to this war against Iran?
We cannot forget that according to security information, the leadership in Iraq was once again close to producing nuclear weapons, which could be a devastating result in the event of a terrorist attack, which they may be capable of carrying out against their “opponents.”
Another reason could be that executions of citizen, in Iran have reached unprecedented levels in recent years, with reports indicating that the Iranian leadership executed more than 2,200 people in 2025 alone.
Finally, it cannot be ruled out that the economic gain from a war, which for the most part concerns crude oil and energy, could become a profit machine for both large corporations and governments involved in the crisis.
When will the war end?
It depends not only on the outcome of the war, which mainly consists of the actions of the US and Israel, but also to what extent the global economy can withstand the pressure of the stock market.
The latest reactions from Donald Trump show that the limit may have been reached, and that a decision is close to being made. The popularity of the president’s actions in the US also has a great influence on his decision.
The only thing we can do is wait and hope that there will be a peace agreement soon.
Thanks for reading my post,
#Windmush / #Curtbergsten
